Emergent Drivers, Future Threats and Opportunities - Public Health Dorset
Emergent Drivers, Future Threats and Opportunities
Friday, Week 10: Emergent Drivers, Future Threats and Opportunities
A quick look at emergent drivers this week throws up lots of interesting things! I had a closer look at a topic that I’m very interested in “Universal Income”. I am interested because having ‘meaningful employment’ is one of the most important factors in keeping people healthy. Most everyone needs some feeling that they are contributing and ‘earning their way’ in the world, although I don’t think that this necessarily means a traditional job. This is where Universal Income offerings hold some promise — reliable income providing dignity is NOT tied to meaningful contribution. This is the future.
Our Shaping Tomorrow insights suggest that this idea is still a long way away and that the ‘chatter’ on this topic is not very intense this week — it’s still a weak signal, but keep an eye out for the many trials underway around the world.
Here is what Shaping Tomorrow’s Athena has found about Universal Income for Public Health Dorset.
Ideas like Universal Basic Income and social media memes like Fully Automated Luxury Communism are spreading virally and will increase their reach and impact exponentially as tens of millions are unemployed by automation in the next two decades.
Even more tantalizing is the idea that with crypto currencies such as system could come into existence that lives outside the confines of nation states and helps bring about a global Universal Basic Income.
Finland has become the first country in Europe to pay its unemployed citizens an unconditional monthly sum in a social experiment that will be watched around the world amid gathering interest in the idea of a universal basic income.
There will be growing pressure for implementation of a universal basic income for all citizens as more people are displaced by automation and robotics while the emerging industries require fewer and more highly skilled employees.
Last updated: 10 March 2019
Threats and Opportunities
The top future threat might be “disease” and a leading future opportunity is “technology”. Most people won’t quibble too much about the opportunity, but the ‘disease threat’ took me a little by surprise. It is interesting how these are calculated as ‘aggregated’ threats and opportunities and we’ll keep tracking these over the year and report back here.
World Challenges – 2025
- The top topic threat is disease which includes effects of and migratory impacts from climate change, air pollution and water shortages, increasing numbers of people suffering from health issues – Alzheimer’s and obesity, new virus epidemics, AMR and rapid population aging, especially in the West. This is a strikingly different top threat from other business surveys and lists which generally do not consider the aggregated threat from health issues.
- The number one topic opportunity is technology with most mentions for AI, Quantum computing, Driverless cars, Drones, Smart Cities, IoT, AR, 5G, Biotech, Neuroscience, Robotics, Printing, Batteries, Blockchain, Space, Holograms and Digitalization.
- The top country at risk is expected to be in India where a burgeoning population and climate change will have major impacts on liveability.
- The top country opportunities are forecast to be in the USA, India, China, and Brazil.
- The construction sector is at the top of the opportunity list because of growing investments in Smart Cities, Hyperloops and high-speed rail projects, China’s Belt and Road initiative –Transport, Energy, and burgeoning population growth in China, India and other developing cities.
- Warnings of increasing climate change, spreading diseases and changing technologies, (especially the possible dangers arising from AI) are the main reasons the science sector is at the top of the sector threat list.
Let me know what you think about these identified emergent drivers, threats and opportunities.
This futures blog
This blog is about how we create ‘healthy places’ and what our possible ‘futures’ could be given current trends and momentum within society, the economic and political systems, and the environment. I use the plural ‘futures’ intentionally, because our future is not pre-determined (I hope), we can and should work towards the future we want. This blog aims to generate discussion (maybe even some debate) around ‘Healthy places futures’ in the hope that if we all put our minds to it, a collective vision may emerge, which would inform any strategy we might put in place to get us to our preferred future. We’ll be leaning on heavily on futuring tools found on our Shaping Tomorrow hosted website: phd.shapingtomorrow.com.
The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed (William Gibson 1993).