Monitoring the Future of Humanity on Planet Earth - Public Health Dorset

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Monitoring the Future of Humanity on Planet Earth

Week 12: Monitoring the Future of Humanity on Planet Earth

Intensity-Tipping point chart

The Intensity-Tipping point chart, below, pulls together in a single visualisation three aspects of prediction made by domain knowledge experts: the number of people and organisations making predictions about the future (intensity), how soon they believe the issues will land in and be accepted by the public (tipping point) and whether we are seeing more new content in the predictions of any particular area.

From the phd.shapingtomorrow.com website:

  • Intensity: The y-axis is a measure of the aggregated, average strengths of the forecasts being made.
  • Tipping Point: The x-axis is a measure of how quickly the aggregated, average forecasts will likely arrive and before the public will accept them as the existing paradigm.
  • Bottom left of the background banding is a close in and strong signal and top right is a further out and weak signal positioning. The banding gives an approximation of who or what is looking further in and further out. Shaping Tomorrow looks across all these bands to present a comprehensive view of future issues.
  • These forecasts are analyzed on a 3-year rolling average.
  • There is no right positioning on this chart. And, positioning should be viewed at a box or banding level rather than trying to discern differences within a box or band (the data is not yet sufficiently granular and extensive to do that).

UN SDGs

The UN Sustainable Development Goals

From the UN SDG website: The Sustainable Development Goals are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all. They address the global challenges we face, including those related to poverty, inequality, climate, environmental degradation, prosperity, and peace and justice. The Goals interconnect and in order to leave no one behind, it ís important that we achieve each Goal and target by 2030. Click on any specific Goal below to learn more about each issue.

Good Health and Well-being

SDG3 Good Health and Wellbeing

From ShapingTomorrow’s website: In September 2015, 193 world leaders agreed to 17 Global Goals for Sustainable Development. If these Goals are completed, it would mean an end to extreme poverty, inequality and climate change by 2030. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.

The World Health Organization estimates that by the year 2055, there will be 900 million people with hearing loss.

The vulnerability of health due to climate change is considered by the Lancet as one of the biggest global health threat of this century, especially in regions with highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and low adaptive capacity.

Climate change will cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century, hitting everything from health to infrastructure.

Human activity is damaging the planet so badly, exacerbated by climate change, that it will increasingly put our health at risk.

The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that Asia will be home to over 11 million healthcare workers by 2030.

People in the most deprived areas of England can expect to have two or more health conditions at 61 years – 10 years earlier than people in the least deprived areas.

The demand for digital health services is comparatively higher than other digital health components and is projected to remain high over the forthcoming years, states the research report.

Global health care expenditures are expected to continue to rise as spending is projected to increase at an annual rate of 5.4 percent between 2017-2022, from USD $7.724 trillion to USD $10.059 trillion.

GDP for the EU as a whole is projected to grow on average at 1.4% a year between 2016 and 2070 but assumptions for individual countries vary from an average as low as 0.8% a year up to 2.1% a year.

The other area of expenditure regarded as strictly age-related is education, which for the EU as a whole is projected to remain steady at 4.5% of GDP from 2016 to 2070.

Cycling could avert 11,300 long term health conditions, saving the NHS in Greater Manchester over £106 million.

The service segment market is expected to dominate the global digital transformation market in healthcare by 2025.

Around the world measles has seen a 30 percent increase in cases leading the World Health Organization to name vaccine hesitancy as one of the top global health threats of 2019.

Owing to the rising demands for less invasive treatment procedures, the Europe market is expected to create a larger revenue pocket in the global market by 2023.

In the coming years, the brown bread market is expected to grow at a faster rate due to growing awareness of health benefits among consumers.

Global absolute spending on health care is expected to expand by 23% between 2015 and 2020 to reach USD9 t, with large markets maintaining a stable growth rate of more than 20%.

The digital health market could reach a value of $504 billion globally by 2025, and $7 trillion is spent on healthcare around the world every year.

Vaccine hesitancy was included in the WHO’s top 10 global health threats, a list it compiles each year.

A growing interest in IoT-managed services in key sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, retail and utilities markets will compel companies to look into deploying IoT solutions in various vertical markets.

Annual diabetes-related healthcare costs are expected to increase by 39% from 775 billion US dollars to more than 1 trillion dollars, further highlighting the urgency for action.

Healthcare providers and payers are boosting their digital transformation deployments in 2017, already by 2019 over 40 percent of healthcare organizations are expected to use IoT-enabled biosensors as IDC predicts.

Air pollution poses the greatest environmental threat to global health in 2019, killing seven million people prematurely every year, which is around the number of deaths caused by cigarettes.

These insights were last updated: 24 March 2019

Implications for the Dorset Integrated Care System?

It is difficult to interpret global ‘signals’ about the future in terms of what this means for us. Nonetheless, we are connected to the rest of the world and it would be unhelpful to pretend otherwise. What this chart suggests to me is that of all the SDGs there seems to be much more ‘talk’, from people who are thought leaders in these areas, about some SDGs and these are all currently expected to ‘land’ with the public sooner than later.

And Health and Well-being is one of those areas — isn’t it interesting that we are being held up, within England, as a leader (certainly way ahead of many areas) in putting population health and well-being as the main driver in everything we do.

The implication may be that very soon — within a couple years maybe — we are going to see this landing with the wider public and resulting in major pressure on our political, social and health systems. Wouldn’t it be great for once, at least, to be ahead of that and delivering and being seen to deliver that for our population?

Only time will tell. But this one little peak into the future suggests we may be on target and ahead of the curve.

Now we just have to deliver.

This futures blog

This blog is about how we create ‘healthy places’ and what our possible ‘futures’ could be given current trends and momentum within society, the economic and political systems, and the environment. I use the plural ‘futures’ intentionally, because our future is not pre-determined (I hope), we can and should work towards the future we want. This blog aims to generate discussion (maybe even some debate) around ‘Healthy places futures’ in the hope that if we all put our minds to it, a collective vision may emerge, which would inform any strategy we might put in place to get us to our preferred future. We’ll be leaning on heavily on futuring tools found on our Shaping Tomorrow hosted website: phd.shapingtomorrow.com.

The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed (William Gibson 1993).

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