Resilience Frontiers: Day 1 — Probable Futures

I’m participating in a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sponsored event in Song-do, South Korea this week. As part of a larger event on Adaptation to Climate Change, this Resilience Frontiers event, is a five day futuring exercise with nearly 100 participants. The largest such event that I’ve attended.

The purpose of this ‘collective intelligence’ exercise is to intentionally move people into a more ‘creative zone’ with the aim of surfacing ‘transformative’ and ‘disruptive’ ideas. Ideas which usually get little ‘air time’ in traditional meeting formats, where only the most urgent topics of the day — not what might occur in the future — get attention.

The opening session introduced a couple new ideas (at least new to me). The first, following on from the term Anthropocene (new name for the current geological era, following on from the Holocene), is Homo symbiont — the potential next step in Human evolution from Homo sapiens. I’m still piecing this concept together in my mind, but it led me to another term used in the futuring community — Transhumanism. Wow. Who knew this was a ‘thing’?

The second, less controversial label is ‘4^th Industrial Revolution’, also referred to as ‘Industry 4.0’. The techradar had a good explanation “The first industrial revolution saw Britain move from farming to factory production in the 19th Century. The second spanned the period from the 1850s to World War I and began with the introduction of steel, culminating in the early electrification of factories and the first spouts of mass production. Finally, the third industrial revolution refers to the change from analogue, mechanical, and electronic technology to digital technology that took place from the late 1950s to the late 1970s.”

“The fourth, then, is the move towards digitisation. Industry 4.0 will use the Internet of Things and cyber-physical systems such as sensors having the ability to collect data that can be used by manufacturers and producers. Secondly, the advancements in big data and powerful analytics means that systems can trawl through the huge sets of data and produce insights that can be acted upon quickly. Thirdly, the communications infrastructure backing this up is secure enough to be used by heavy industries” (Mike Moore, 24 April 2018).

Breakout Session 1: Visualizing probable futures under impact of 4^th Industrial revolution

We broke into groups of 8 or 9 people to look at some of the technology drivers that will impact our ability to adapt to future climate change:

• Groups 1-4: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Group 5: BioTech
• Group 6: Satellite Technology
• Groups 7-10: Sustainability Ethos

I had another quick look at Emergent Drivers From Public Health Dorset’s ShapingTomorrow site. Shaping Tomorrow uses AI it calls Athena to research emerging drivers and some of those drivers are: Industry 4.0, Artificial Intelligence, Digitalization, IoT, Blockchain, Drones, Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies, Sensors, 5G and 6G, Robotics, Quantum Computing, Data. A range of topics that is impossible to comprehensively discuss in a couple hours! An intensity-tipping point chart, below, represents relative signal strength. I talked about the intensity-tipping point visualization in a previous blog, but, in brief, drivers in the bottom left are coming soon and the chatter is relatively intense, whereas those in the top-right of the chart are a long way out and it is a weak signal.

Breakout Session 2: Cross-Fertilization

The final session today focused on cross-cutting topics: Food, Water, Health, Nature, and Human Security. Topics that I regularly scan for because of their impact on the future of health and wellbeing. I have slightly different [labels] and maybe a slightly different focus in my horizon scanning, but the overlap is significant. My ‘Our Challenges’ chart and recent strategic insights generated by Athena are appended below. Athena judges that Health and Care Services drivers are landing sooner and the signal is more intense that Urban Greenspace, for example.

• Groups 1-2: Food [Food and Nutrition]
• Groups 3-4: Water [Water-pollution]
• Group 4: Health [Health and Care Services]
• Groups 5-7: Nature [Urban Greenspace]
• Groups 8-10: Human Security [Crime and Public Safety]

Food and Nutrition

•   Food and nutrition security of poor urban populations remains at risk as a consequence of the volatility and rapid increases in food prices, natural disasters and climate change effects.
• Increasing consumer interest in healthy lifestyle, various weight loss diet trends and rising concern on animal welfare & environment will fuel the sales of almond milk across the world.
• Food safety is a central element of public health and will be crucial in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
• By 2025, the global food supply will continue to be driven by emphasis on food security, food safety, health, and sustainability.
• The Chinese have some major challenges including, shrinking farmland, poor soil health, ageing workforce and a growing population, which is expected to exceed 1.5 billion and demand an extra 100 million tons of food each year by 2030.
• Food safety standards could be put at risk by Brexit if the UK quits the EU without a deal to keep exchanging information on public health issues.
• Several countries have been setting up strategic roadmaps to support marine biotechnologies that could drive innovation and help address the global sustainability goals of food, energy, and health.
• Keeping global warming below 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C should also lower climate-related risks to food security, water supplies, biodiversity and ecosystems, human health, livelihoods and security, and economic growth.
• Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will receive $19M to target AI-driven solutions for areas including food security and quality, health and wellbeing, sustainable energy and resources, resilient and valuable environments, and Australian and regional security.
• The WHO said earlier this year that antibiotic resistance is rising to dangerously high levels in all parts of the world and is one of the biggest threats to global health, food security, and development today.
• The impacts of climate change, from air pollution to extreme weather events, to disruptions to food and water systems, will pose the greatest threats to global health in this century, and health leaders say it’s time for the sector to be a more active participant in the global climate debate.
• The global Food And Beverage Services market is expected to grow at a healthy rate during the forecast period (2018-2022).
• Global Food Colors Market valued approximately USD1.81 billion in 2016 is forecasted tgrow with a healthy growth rate of more than 5.82% over the forecast period 2018-2025.
• The German labor force is expected to shrink by 2030,and this will put heavy pressure on Germany to find workers for areas such as health and social work (1.88 million additional workers needed by 2030) and accommodation and food service (1.1 million additional workers needed by 2030)
• The risk of bird flu to public health is very low and the Food Standards Agency said it did not pose a risk to UK consumers.
• Fast-growing categories for Amazon are food and beverage and health, personal care and beauty: Food and beverage will grow more than 40% this year, while health and beauty will jump nearly 38%.
• Reducing food insecurity and improving peoples’ health in the developing world will be especially critical as climate change alters agriculture production.
• Locust infestations, plant pests, food-borne pathogens and mycotoxins are just some examples of food chain threats that have detrimental effects on food security, human health, livelihoods, national economies and global markets.
• Switching to a plant-heavy diet could save the US up to $80 billion, the study shows, by averting greenhouse gas emissions and the national cost of health problems that stem from unhealthy diets.
• The Business and Sustainable Development Commission has previously identified US$12 trillion in annual business opportunities that will open up for the private sector if it delivers the Global Goals in four systems: food and agriculture; cities; energy and materials; and health and well-being.
• Higher global temperatures are projected to lower crop yields and food availability in the poorest countries and to shift the composition of consumption to a pat – tern that is associated with negative health implications.
• North America and Europe are expected to witness a healthy growth in the frozen food packaging market due to high demand in packaged food and frozen food market.
• The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health recognize that addressing health risks at the human-animal-plant-ecosystems interfaces requires strong partnerships among entities that may have different perspectives and much work is currently ongoing.

Pollution — Water

•   [New] In all, 600 million Indians – – or half the population – – face high to extreme water stress: Up to 75 percent of households do not have drinking water on-premise and by 2030, 40 percent of the population will have no access to drinking water.
• With roughly 663 million people lacking access to drinking water and 2.4 billion people worldwide still lacking access to sanitation, water security is still considered to be one of the biggest global risks.
• As U.S. water infrastructure continues to age, water bills will become more expensive; researchers estimate that by 2020, one-third of Americans will not be able to afford clean water for drinking, bathing, and cooking.
• Restoring more forests around Rio de Janeiro could save the city up to $79 million in water treatment costs, while dramatically reducing the amount of chemicals used to treat drinking water.
• Earth Challenge 2020 will engage millions of global citizens and collect one billion data points in areas including air quality, water quality, biodiversity, pollution, and human health.
• The impacts of climate change, from air pollution to extreme weather events, to disruptions to food and water systems, will pose the greatest threats to global health in this century, and health leaders say it’s time for the sector to be a more active participant in the global climate debate.
• Envision has drafted a plan to acquire all the Utah community’s electricity from renewable sources by 2032, reducing emissions, saving water and improving air quality in the process.
• China will speed up the legislation on seawater utilisation, expand the use of seawater and address public concerns over drinking desalinated water.
• In places that are conflict-prone and vulnerable to water shortages, such as the Middle East, climate change could seriously affect regional stability.
• A 2018 study commissioned by the Pentagon found that even before anticipated sea level rise swallows Kwajalein, ocean waves could wash over the low-lying islands often enough by 2030 to harm underground drinking water sources and the multibillion-dollar military infrastructure.
• About 2.1 billion people around the world lack immediate access to clean drinking water, and the US Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that water requirements will exceed supplies by 40% shortage by 2030.
• Achieving universal access to a basic drinking water source appears within reach, but universal access to basic sanitation will require additional efforts.
• At the current pace, the world will fall short of meeting one of the United Nations’ sustainable development goals: to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030.
• A combination a much larger population with increased longevity, further economic growth as the developing world catches up with the developed world, increasing consumption patterns partnered with the impacts of climate change and increasing pollution levels; will see a global water stressed future.
• Next year, the Netherlands will provide an additional 2.3 million people with access to sanitation facilities and 1.6 million people with access to clean drinking water.
• If the natural environment continues to be degraded and unsustainable pressures put on global water resources, 45 per cent of the global gross domestic product, 52 per cent of the world’s population and 40 per cent of global grain pro- duction will be put at risk by 2050.
• Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited sees a long-term opportunity in providing access to clean drinking water across China.
• A new system devised by MIT engineers could provide a low-cost source of drinking water for parched cities around the world while cutting power plant operating costs.
• Recent breakthroughs in materials science might help to address the global challenge of access to clean drinking water.
• Lack of proper sanitation facilities and lack of access to safe drinking water in many countries of Asia Pacific and Middle East & Africa might contribute to the increase in the spread of zoonotic diseases contributing to the growth of zoonotic disease treatment market.
• By the middle of this century more than a third of all counties in the lower 48 states will be at higher risk of water shortages with more than 400 of the 1,100 counties facing an extremely high risk.
• 5 billion people could face water stresses in the coming decades as a result climate change, pollution and rising demand.

Health and Social Care

• [New] Even with UK council tax flexibilities, the LGA has estimates that adult social care services will face a funding gap of at least £1bn in 2019/20, just to maintain existing standards of care.
• Significantly reducing the number of UK physicians and nurses who leave practice could save the health care system $2 billion per year.
• Global health care expenditures are expected to continue to rise as spending is projected to increase at an annual rate of 5.4 percent between 2017-2022, from USD $7.724 trillion to USD $10.059 trillion.
• Research from the United States shows that the three occupations expected to grow the most between 2014 and 2024 are personal care aides, registered nurses and home health aides.
• Global health care spending is projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.1% in 2017 to 2021, an increase of 1.3% from 2012 to 2016.
• By 2025, there will be 2.8 million UK people over the age of 65 in need of nursing and social care, largely because of the growing prevalence of dementia.
• Global absolute spending on health care is expected to expand by 23% between 2015 and 2020 to reach USD9 t, with large markets maintaining a stable growth rate of more than 20%.
• Almost one in seven older UK people are today living with an unmet care need, a figure that looks set to only grow: Maintaining what is already a threadbare, under-resourced, barely functioning social care system will require £18bn by 2033/34 just to stand still.
• Under a no-deal Brexit, the immigration white paper proposes a minimum salary threshold of £30,000 per year which could seriously limit immigration of many health workers to the UK.
• Kenya will need an investment of US$6 billion over and above government resources and individual subscriptions in the next decade to reach government targets for primary health care.
• The US state Department of Labor forecasts nearly 9 percent growth in ambulatory health care jobs statewide from 2017 to 2019, compared to 3 percent growth in nursing and residential care jobs and 2.2 percent growth in hospital jobs.
• The UK Local Government Association has meanwhile warned that adult social care services face a £3.5bn funding gap by 2025 just to maintain existing standards of care.
• Global health care expenditures are expected to continue to rise as spending is projected to increase at an annual rate of 5.4% between 2017 to 2022.
• Health care jobs will be among the fastest growing occupations in the United States through 2026, accounting for about 2.4 million new jobs, according to projections released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• By 2025, AI systems could be involved in nearly all aspects of global health care, from AI doctors responding to specific patient care needs to managing entire health care systems.
• The aging population of the United States and the rising cost of health care will likely cause federal spending to skyrocket over the next decade – with a noticeable spike surfacing even sooner than previously anticipated.
• Almost 1.5 million people already work in social care in England, but 650,000 more could be needed by 2035 to keep up with demand for support from an ageing population.
• Some 67% of medical practices said that the Medicare payment rates for 2019 will not cover the cost of their delivering care to patients.
• Of the $2.6 trillion projected increase in spending between 2019 and 2029 under current law, 31 percent is due to the rising costs of Social Security, 23 percent due to the rising costs of Medicare, another 12 percent due to other health care programs, and 21 percent due to rising interest costs.
• Tackling emerging threats to the population’s health in the coming decades, whether that is levels of obesity or the growing prevalence of mental health conditions – or other challenges entirely – is important.
• The United Nations says sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the source of more than half of the world’s population growth between now and 2050, straining countries’ abilities to provide good education, jobs and health care.

Urban Greenspace

Urban greenspace is recognised as one of the most important health and wellbeing components of the built environment.

• Unchecked urban growth threatens the ability of nature to protect the 40 million people currently living in coastal cities and towns at increased risk from the effects of climate change-a number projected to triple by 2070.
• Given the long-lived nature of urban infrastructure, the decisions made over the next five years by both national and local governments will determine the development pathway of the future and SDG 11.
• Forest loss in the United States associated with population growth is projected to exceed 50 million acres by 2050 as urban land area grows by an estimated 79 percent.
• Atlanta’s projects will target mitigating localized flooding, water quality, and urban heat island issues.
• Improving forest health in the Sierra Nevada and other headwaters will protect water quality and availability.
• The US Forest Service estimates that land in urban environments will more than double between 2010 and 2060, and that green spaces and urban forests also need to expand to keep up to help with air quality, climate change and lower energy use.
• Over the next 25 years, Atwater will likely face a number of critical challenges and opportunities affecting the urban forest.
• The expansion of urban populations will dramatically increase global demand for food of a non-subsistence nature while continuing urbanization will put pressure on existing food production.
• The risk of forest loss in the absence of wood markets is reflected in trends for the world as a whole which show that regions with the highest levels of industrial timber harvest and forest products output tend to be the regions with the lowest rates of deforestation.
• Carbon dioxide emissions from conventional energy use in Asia’s developing countries will increase from 33 percent of the world total in 2008 to 45 percent by 2030.
• Investing in conservation in high-impact watersheds before forests are converted to other uses will be more effective and generate a greater return on investment than waiting until reclamation or restoration is necessary.
• The “urban heat island effect” which makes cities several degrees warmer than rural areas, is expected to add to air and water pollution, as well as making workers less productive.
• Investing just US $4 per resident in some of the world’s largest cities could improve the health of tens of millions of people by reducing air pollution and cooling city streets.
• Canada has introduced its newest and first-ever national urban park: Rouge National Urban Park will be the largest and most well-protected urban park of its kind in the world-22 times larger than New York’s Central Park.
• A global investment of $100 million per year in tree planting and maintenance could provide as many as 77 million people with cooler cities and offer 68 million people measurable reductions in fine particulate matter pollution.
• Urban expansion in the U.S. is projected to destroy 50 million acres of forest by 2050.
• Green roof owners can expect to mitigate the urban heat island effect.
• Climate change will expose cities to more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, flooding, water scarcity and forest fires.
• International financing for forest protection (REDD+) could support cities already located in the heart of rainforest basins to develop in a way which prevents the destruction of their forest assets.
• There can be little doubt that the environmental functions and benefits of the urban forest will vary widely between cities in southern, central and northern Europe.
• The resilience of sub-Saharan African cities will depend partly on how institutions, individuals, and authorities respond to reduce the climate change impacts.
• Ukraine will seek Nato membership in exchange for a series of economic and political reforms over the next three years.

Crime and Public safety

• [New] The UK government will allocate extra funding to tackle serious violence and knife crime concerns, providing £100 million to police forces in the most affected areas of England and Wales.
• [New] £80 million of new funding will be provided to police forces in England in 2019/20, to tackle serious violence and knife crime.
• UK police chiefs will seek an emergency grant of at least £15m to tackle knife crime.
• The UN Human Rights Council’s initial report, accusing the IDF of war crimes, could not have come at a worse time for Israel in terms of its impact on the International Criminal Court.
• Predictive analytics integrate technology with various domains and its implementation could improve public safety in terms of detecting and preventing crime.
• With cyber crime predicted to cost businesses between $2.1 trillion in 2019 and $6 trillion by 2021, information security while travelling on business is an area of particular concern.
• The UK Government has announced a task force to tackle economic crime and some are anticipating the first use of the corporate failure to prevent the facilitation of tax evasion offence, enacted by the Criminal Finance Act.
• The protracted crisis in Libya is expected to continue in 2019 due to interlinked political, security and economic crises that drive conflict, damage the economy, weaken state institutions, and allow for criminal gangs and the existence of armed militias.
• MI5, MI6, the National Cyber Security Centre and the National Crime Agency have issued warnings on potential cyber threats to UK infrastructure, including on the UK’s electricity and gas networks.
• Current Criminal Law ISSN 1758-8405 United Kingdom’s cybercrime in 2018 Sally Ramage UK’s economy will suffer profound effects’ if the growing threat of cyber crime is not tackled, warns one of the UK’s most senior police officers.
• The distributed antenna system market for public safety is expected to grow at a higher CAGR between 2018 and 2023.
• With the European Union and Australia both imposing mandatory obligations to disclose data breaches, expect renewed impetus for the reform of New Zealand’s data and cyber security framework.
• Increasing investment by public as well as private investors for the development of UAVs is going to drive the market for UAV in the coming years whereas safety concerns such as cyber-crime or permission to fly can act as a restraining factor in the market.
• Organised crime now costs the UK at least £37 billion – more than any other national security threat, according to the Home Office.
• The National Crime Agency estimates that total fraud losses in the UK could be as much as £193bn and UK residents are more likely to be victims of fraud than any other crime.
• The National Crime Agency assesses that the actual scale of modern slavery in the UK is gradually increasing and, if drivers remain at their current levels, will continue to do so over the next three years.
• Growing adoption of digital aerial imagery in urban planning and increasing popularity of location-based services are the major drivers which help in surging the growth of aerial imaging market whereas rising concern over privacy, public safety, and national security act as a restraining factor.
• With the European Union and Australia both imposing mandatory obligations to disclose data breaches expect renewed impetus for the reform of New Zealand’s data and cyber security framework.
• Without a proper arrangement, homeland data flows and police and judicial cooperation risk being suspended altogether to the severe detriment of both the UK and the EU.
• Having belatedly declared the importance of mechanisms like the European Arrest Warrant for public safety, the government will need to cross even more of its red lines to build a strong relationship with the EU on security.
• UK crime is set to keep rising over the coming years with children, elderly people and vulnerable adults at particular risk of harm, police chiefs have warned.

This futures blog

This blog is about how we create ‘healthy places’ and what our possible ‘futures’ could be given current trends and momentum within society, the economic and political systems, and the environment. I use the plural ‘futures’ intentionally, because our future is not pre-determined (I hope), we can and should work towards the future we want. This blog aims to generate discussion (maybe even some debate) around ‘Healthy places futures’ in the hope that if we all put our minds to it, a collective vision may emerge, which would inform any strategy we might put in place to get us to our preferred future. We’ll be leaning on heavily on futuring tools found on our Shaping Tomorrow hosted website: phd.shapingtomorrow.com.

The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed (William Gibson 1993).